“Spartan Theory” Part 1, Chapter 13
Well it’s been ages since I’ve made any personal notes, me and Mike have fully concentrated on the presentation.
Well one thing to report is that my back has been stuffed for 2 weeks now, I do this every year at some point, stop my stretches then pull it, I should have known better especially as I have not been doing Pilates for time and financial reasons.
The annoying thing is that I can’t really afford to go to my Chiropractor, more annoying is my DVD player bust yesterday so I’m down to 2 TV channels, one point on this though, last night I got to sleep quicker as there was nothing to watch…. Go figure….
Well maybe its all for the best as my back injury has meant I have not been able to walk much add that to having no cash, pretty much meant I was working solidly for 2 weeks without creative inspiration (which mainly comes from walking in the mountains.
The result of this was a far more business like presentation, relatively specific to the Job Spec “Director, Business Development. It’s not specifically the job I want, if I wish a job at all, all I want to do is have FaceBook develop S-World plans, what my specific roll and title, is to a point irrelevant, It would however be nice to post on my FaceBook wall, “Ah ha, Nick Ray Ball, Director of FaceBook business development….. Now that’s what you call a come back” for a bit of instant attention/one-upmanship to all those that either believed Caitlin’s lies or just thought I was nuts. And a further post… To all those that did not believe or help me.. Join Mensa, Harvard BEA, Nobel, VIRGIN & Google.. And “Walk in my Shadow” (add Ghost dance link)
The trouble with full business mode and not walking in the mountains, is that it takes me away from Sienna, and the beauty of physics, and as such I’m finding it difficult to stay positive, which is not nice, weather my negativity will spiritually effect the people who read my proposal, no one can say, but its possible, and as much as I try its difficult, all be it writing in my/this journal again does seem to help some.
Back to the presentation, compared to the first proposal that was sent but never got received it was as safe as I could make it, not really pressing the Big 16 or “The Spartan Theory” The Big 16 mentioned as business theory, not business plan. I’m quite happy with the work on getting investment from the Big 16, mainly consisting of spreading the $1B across 5 sectors and 16 locations and so making the max investment for anyone $12M or so, and further the idea that we start with the industry leader, in the case of the presentation Coca Cola in drinks, and the premise, there not going to say no to $12M, even if just to block Pepsi.
Well my plan for the next few weeks is to work on The Spartan Theory, In my head I have so many good reasons for Greece to give up “New Sparta” all be it I have severely increased the size of the land I want, so each The Big 16 industry can have about 16 x 10 miles of coastline, then in the middle every country, or most have a one square mile, and the ability to bid for more land, a double auction.
Anyway Mike is here and where going to try do final corrections to Development and Travel sections, ready to send as attachment today or tomorrow. Good buy xx
Had an excellent day, tidying the business development section, it’s a lot stronger now, simpler and my back was good enough for a whole lap of Chapman’s peak trail, and so the creative juices burned again, tonight I will do FaceBook Realty and then … at the weekend do “The “Spartan Theory”
So to it…
26th Aug 2011
The following is taken from my considerable knowledge of South African Realty and entry level knowledge of UK Realty, system in the US may differ.
FB/CRM5 Property Valuator
FB/CRM6 Furnishing Estimator
FB/CRM7 Renovation Estimator
Global House Price Index
Global Building Index
I have done a quick search on Google simply typing Realtors, and then looked at the most expensive houses in Palo Alto.
House price US$3.8 Million, representation 4 photographs.
House Price US$16 Million, representation 10 dreadful photographs
S-World 3D Virtual Property Display Realtors current display
There is simply no comparison, between an S-World display and current efforts made my Realtors, but how often will a house hunter purchase a house from a 3D Virtual representation? Very rarely
This said given a reasonable amount of properties within the hose hunter’s area, they will use S-World to create their shortlist, before making a personal viewing. Both ruling out houses unsuitable and getting excited about ones that seem appropriate.
I can tell you from experience, the best way to buy property, which is for most people their main asset is to look at every house possible from every individual estate agent in every estate agency in the location or locations one desires, but often time and the persuasiveness of the estate agent not to try other companies, see’s house hunters seeing no more than 10 houses, before deciding, and often, the houses they buy have been over sold in terms of evaluation and growth potential to suit the profit margin of the Estate Agent.
The reason for this is all down to Mandates, (and exclusive contract to sell a property for a fixed period, often about 2 months, some times a dual mandate is given between 2 agencies)
Often when a Realtor shows a client houses, they will show properties, not only mandated to them individually, but also properties mandated to other employees working for the same Estate Agents, and sometimes other local companies in the area. When this happens the estate agents commission is cut in half.
In general (and this often changes) the commission made from an Estate Agent is split 50/50 with the estate agency, if the Agent that made the sale signed the mandate. If another agent signed the mandate the split goes 50% company 25% agent that sold the house 25% agent that signed the mandate, this said some times its 50% agent that signed the mandate 25% agent that sold the house 25% company. All in all there are thousands of reasons for a realtor to push clients into houses that they have personally mandated.
Further to this is also not in the interest of any Real Estate Agent to get the home purchaser the best deal, again due to the mandate, the mandate will always have a sale price, this said rarely is this price achieved, often the buyer will try to bargain, and this bargaining procedure usually sees about a 7% reduction in sale price, hence the original sale price is often inflated by 7%. If the Realtor manages to achieve the owners desired price, they get full commission of approximately 2% if the owner drops below their desired price, the commission often drops.
So as we can see, Realty is far from a customer centric industry, and as such, like travel not only is there room to improve networks and technology, we have the opportunity to improve the industry in general.
Before I get into the logistics of training or recruiting Estate Agents to FaceBook Realty and making partnerships with local, regional and global Estate Agencies, I’d like to go through the new advances we will need to add to the Travel CRM Program.
FB/CRM5 Property Valuator
FB/CRM6 Furnishing Estimator
FB/CRM7 Renovation Estimator
FB/CRM5 Property Valuator.
Valuing a property is a very hit or miss affair, relying mainly on local knowledge of what other similar properties have sold for, it is possible to pull up data on how much a house was previously sold for but that’s only really relevant if it was sold recently.
The biggest trouble however, is individual Agents saying a property is worth far more that its worth simply to get the mandate.
I will use a real example of a client Mr. Ascot who I helped to buy a house, Mr. Ascot is an experienced property investor and knowledgeable in building. It started 4 years ago with a phone call from a guest saying he was interested in buying Carpe Diem, a significant house in Cape Town, I advised he offered R17Million about $US2.4 Million, and the offer was accepted, $US 1 Million below the asking price, the property however had been on the market for 5 years.
Mr. Ascot then spent $US400,000 building some more bedrooms, and wanted to sell it for $US 5,000,000, I told him it was simply not possible, that figure was twice what any house in the area had ever sold for, plus there was now a recession coming. He actually got very upset, telling me if this house was in the Algarve it would sell for $US 5 Million, I pointed out that the house was not in the Algarve, but it made no difference.
He had had some Agents to valuate the newly renovated property, I knew all 3, all experienced working for big firms two gave appraisals about $US 3Milllion and from Sotheby’s agreed with Mr. Ascots $5 Million. 4 years later he still has not sold his house and now he will take $3 Million, to the best of my knowledge he has never signed a Mandate.
Last year however another Client Jens did however with Seeff for R18,000,000 on this house (well over Market value), within 3 months the client had lowered his price to R14,500,000 and it still has not sold.
My point here is simply this… Seeff still have the mandate, and so, in this particular case it made good business sense for the Agent to give an over valuation to get the mandate with a view to lowering the price after a moth or so.
This highlights another series problem with the industry, over valuations.
So how will we make software to value houses? How will we create the FB/CRM5 Property Valuator?
To automatically value a house you will need a lot of information, in a few different categories.
One can log onto the land registry network and access all property sales, so gaining averages from the entire USA, to an individual road or street. This is a good place to start, already more than anyone I know can do. As mentioned in S-World we will be mapping out the outbuilding dimensions and gardens, so without any home owner’s assistance we will know house footprint, gardens and what the average price is for such a house in their particular road.
Then we factor distance to and quality of schools, college, Montessori’s, hospitals, clinics/ nature reserves/green belt, parks, cultural or historic items, beaches, different tourist attraction, restaurants, bars, nightclubs, general social areas, golf clubs, race courses, etc.
This will take us to about 50% accuracy, say between $1Million & 2 Million. So before an owner tries to value their property, there’s some good data. Now the owner can put in information, the amount or stories, bedrooms and details such as are the bedrooms en suite. And answer some honesty questions about the condition of the property its grounds and the décor.
Now unless the house owner has lied on the honesty questions were getting close to 75% accuracy, without any need to talk to an estate agent, (who may well have given an overinflated price.)
Supply & Demand is important, quite simply how many houses specific to a house hunters search are there in his desired area, only 3 and the price goes up, 35 and the price goes quite a way down.
Now were closing in on 85% accuracy to 98% maybe 99% accuracy requires 2 things, a detailed S-World 3D rendering to 90% accuracy, including view and 2 an independent grading of the property, much like a tourism grading, One to Seven stars.
We accomplish both these tasks at the same time, without cost to the
owner, as a FaceBook Realtor or assistant will come render and grade the
house in exchange for a mandate to sell the property.
As far as the grading, we will teach our requirements in an adaption of “The Tutorial Game” and make the agents responsible for accurate results, as house buyers who felt their time wasted looking at a 5 star house that they felt was only a 3 star house, can make a complaint on the system, this is not completely dissimilar to Travel Servise Ratings
Once we have taken all these factors, into consideration, you have a very accurate valuation of your house, and if your happy with the price, that’s excellent as anyone buying is going to feel good about the deal as well, no one likes to get ripped of, but often a home is a (with love) purchase and as such one is often satisfied with a fair deal.
If the price is higher, that the owner wanted everyone’s happy
If it’s lower, well like my client, if you don’t want to listen to the truth, then there’s little point in having a conversation. That said if I showed him a report with over 1000 calculations that valued it, maybe he would have listened.
There are three kinds of sellers
Those that have to sell
All 3 groups benefit from what I have called “The Global House Price Index”
Those that “have to sell”, can simply lower there price by 10% or 15%, and buyers looking in that area will certainly look as well will buy for let, investment buyers. All in all a much better way to let people know your offering a good deal, that will see their house sold a lot quicker, which is often critical to “have to sell” sellers.
Those that just “wish to move” can either bargain hunt or go for a love purchase without getting ripped of.
Those that would sell “at the right price” It works here as well, they can set there price 15% maybe 20% higher than is suggested, now markets being markets there will be some times where there are lots of similar houses available and times when there are few, or none even, due to the supply and demand factors, there could come a time when the houses current value due to lack of competition is 15% or 20% higher and so the price would balance out at a fair deal (considering the market) and as a fair deal there’s a good chance of getting a love buy.
But that’s not all, there are other variables that will move a house off its base index price, and those are set by the house hunter in their advanced search criteria. for example if one really wants to be in a good schools catchment area, a house that met those requirements will be valued higher than one that is not, to some a good view is priceless, some prefer a big pool. Whatever the client search criteria effects the clients search rate,
This rate will take into consideration, the cost of building a big pool, if a big pool is essential, by simply deducting the cost of building a pool say $40,000 – so houses with a big pool already will be $40,000 cheaper, in the “client rate” that the “base” “Global House Index rate”
So what we cre
CRM 6 7
Now we have to have agents, same as travel
Unlike in the travel industry, where accommodation venue’s pay about $400 for a 10 bedroom hotel to be rendered, individual houses will be rendered for free, in exchange for mandate
Distance to and quality of schools, college, Montessori, hospitals/clinics/ nature reserves/green belt, parks, cultural or historic items, beaches, different tourist attraction, restaurants, bars, nightclubs, general social areas, golf clubs, race courses, etc, etc. etc.
Whilst some will have only a small effect, some like distance to beach, will have a dramatic effect if a house is directly on a beach.
The reason for this is “Mandates” (an exclusive contract between a home owner and an agent to sell a property for a fixed period) Mandates are gained in two ways, individual estate agents networking the area, or home owners walking into Real Estate Agents shops.
Often in Real Estate individual real estate agents are more powerful than their companies due to their potential mandates, where they have stayed in touch with the owners of who have purchased homes from them, (of course the CRM will help here).
Excellent agents often move between companies, then start there own companies or take on franchises, often however their lack of business experience see’s failure and so they become agents again, our financial software tailored to the Real Estate industry would make all but the most financially inept of super agents make a successful home or office run business.
By approaching High Street Estate Agents, and allowing them to Render Houses in S-World asking only 10% a good number will join up, the individual agents could be taught how to use the pen laser and fully render a house so there would be no cost over than time.
With real estate it’s really a numbers game, unlike Travel where exclusivity creates hype and desire, with real estate we really want to try and get 30% of all new houses for sale rendered in S-World as quickly as possible. There is an argument, that until that figure is reached we take no fee/commission for agents or the public regarding rendering private houses in S-World.
Why 30%, and will anyone seriously buy a house from a 3D simulation.
I’d say only a very small percentage of people will buy through S-World without seeing it. So what’s the point? Reverse physiology! People will not by houses without seeing them, but they will for sure, use S-World to quickly look through 1/3rd of all houses in there area to make their shortlist.
I can tell you from experience, the best way to buy property, which for most their main asset is to look at every house possible from every individual estate agent in every estate agency in the location or locations one desires.
Many will just pick one or two estate agents and look at no more than 10 houses, before deciding. If house hunters had the opportunity to quickly look at 30 maybe 50 suitable houses on line in glorious detail, chances are, they will buy one of those houses, maybe making a shortlist of 5, then going for a personal visit.
I’m estimating but I think 30% will be enough of a figure to dramatically effect buying patters to S-World affiliated Agents, which will see a snowball effect, that in all honesty I can see becoming a complete monopoly, maybe even my 2017. (Just in time for the arrival of Battle Star Galactica LOL)
(Note Idea – To get on the good side of the agents, we can insist that any home owner that wishes to sell there home privately through S-World needs to work with one of our partner estate agencies)
(Note 2 – Estate agencies in general will embrace the concept, as improved networking and a far superior fun display will breath new life into the industry, it will most likely not see an increase in property prices as we are in effect increasing supply (increasing the amount of houses a potential house hunter will see) and hence lowering demand, which really works for everyone as lower priced houses means more people can afford houses and so more sales, and more commission for Estate Agents.)
Ones we have got our 30%, maybe 2 years, we can start charging split commission on all houses on S-World, it will be to late, the monopoly already made, and with half the proceeds going to “Give Half Back” few would complain.
During these 2 years we can however make money by setting up FaceBook Travel Agent and Rep companies, where agents that worked for high street agencies jump ship to FaceBook Realty, or newly qualified agents come strait to FaceBook Realty, these agents will have similar tools as the Travel agents and reps, total financial control, excellent customer service CRM, there own website and the ability to draw feed from agencies around the world. A tutorial game that teaches the industry, maybe even oversee the taking of the Real Estate Exam itself.
We will simply go 50/50 with these agents on any sales they make
As soon as we are at 30% we will see most home buying public looking at S-World before going to a high street agent, add this to FaceBook users in general liking FaceBook Realty simply because its cool and I can really see FaceBook Realty and S-World making 50% of all property sales in 2017 by people who have access to the internet, working on a 50/50 split with FaceBook Realty Agents of 2%
So how much will that make in 2017.
FaceBook Travel will make 50% of real estate sales to 2 Billion people.
500 Million People / 10 years = 50 Million new houses bought in 2017 x $100,000 = US$ Five Trillion x 1% commission = US$50 Billion, like travel I will divide by 2 for unexpected problems = US$ 25 Billion /2 for Give Half Back = US$ 12.5 Billion for FaceBook Realty.
In all seriousness, will anyone really use a few photographs over an S-World presentation to initially evaluate a house, particularly within many or most high street agencies connected to S-World.
“The Spartan Theory”
Recent economic history of Greece, main source Greek Myths the Birth
of a crisis Jeff Randal including content from the President of the Athens
Chambers of Commerce
But Greece is also attracting help from unlikely places. On Tuesday, scores of Chinese business leaders, financiers, entrepreneurs and academics piled into a hotel in Athens for a ''premier conference'' aimed at increasing Chinese investment.
Some of the world's wealthiest financiers, bankers and real estate tycoons of Greek descent also arrived for a ''power summit'' aimed at exploring business opportunities. '
''If it could guarantee fair play and the eradication of corruption and bribery, we would be here helping it get out of this drama,''
How an economy was broken by debt and delusion that has prompted a crisis
that threatens to sink the EU’s single currency. He discovers how
a widespread resentment and distrust of corrupt politicians has spilt
over into violence.
30 billion not collected in tax
Rioting over years of reckless overspending, blame also on the orthodox
church, second biggest land owner, should declare true worth and pay its
Estimated Greek debt per year 32,850,000,000
Lakonia county population 101,000 Density 23 SQ KM 3636 KM SQ 1404 SQ
A Mile of motorway in the UK costs 34 Million
Underground $130,000 per Km http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=285840
Big 16 Oil Consortium – Territory 2
Hotel & Villa Resort 5.5 km sq
Rent per year $10 Million
Rates % .4% $ 5.4 Million
Cost of building - $ 340 Million
Lots been done this weekend, 5 new real estate techs, including a the very doable “Global house index”
But hiking earlier I had a major breakthrough in New Sparta, which is looking awesome, Science Schools.
Each Big 16 territory dedicates itself to a science, and I mean dedicate, old and young Greek, Arabic, student, bar man, road sweeper (if we can’t automate this) business man, young mother, granny, absolutely everyone in the city studies one Science,
A buddy system will take place where students become teachers, after all the best way to learn is to teach, and the best way to become a better teacher is through experience.
The idea is not simply that everyone studies all the time. Hold on back step, I’m dying to work out the BIG 16 subjects, and yep, this will definitely be a step in the desired direction and a credible way to look further at the film script.
BIG 16 Specialist Subjects
1. String Theory & The Theory of Everything